Keynes: Stockpicker extraordinaire

Här är en intressant artikel om John Maynard Keynes framgång som placerare för King’s College.

”Keynes began as what we would today call a ”macro” manager, relying on monetary and economic signals to rotate in and out of stocks, bonds and cash. He traded foreign currencies and commodities. As a director of the Bank of England, Keynes was privy to inside information about interest-rate changes, although there isn’t evidence that he traded on it.

But Keynes wasn’t a very good macro manager. He lagged behind the British stock market miserably until 1928, and he had 83% of his primary portfolio in stocks going into the fall of 1929.

”It’s hard to time the markets,” Mr. Chambers says. ”Keynes struggled with it, and then he missed the 1929 crash—even with an unrivaled network of information sources.”So Keynes made a series of radical changes: He switched from being a ”top down” asset allocator to a ”bottom up” stock picker. He tilted sharply toward undervalued small and midsize companies.”

Artikeln baseras på en akademisk avhandling av David Chambers och Elroy Dimson.

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